党的二十届三中全会建议篮球买球下单平台，科学的宏不雅调控、灵验的政府照管是阐扬社会观念阛阓经济体制上风的内在条款。必须完善宏不雅调适度度体系，统筹鼓吹财税、金融等要点界限更变，增强宏不雅政策取向一致性。
2024年以来，财政政策现实力度抓续加大，超永远国债供给大幅加多。1―8月，国债刊行限制为8.4万亿元，同比增长33%；超永远相配国债刊行限制为8220亿元，同比增长257%，在补助办好国度要紧计谋和要点界限安全才气树立方面阐扬积极作用。同期，加速中央预算内投资下达和地点政府债券发附近用，推动经济连接回升向好态势。其间，10年期国债收益率下落39BP，信用利差收窄至历史低位。
货币政策保管补助性态度，为经济抓续回升向好提供金融补助，货币政策用具和框架机制也在发生变化。贯彻落实中央金融责任会议条款，2024年8月，中国东谈主民银行开展了公开阛阓国债买卖操作，向部分公开阛阓业务一级交游商买入短期限国债并卖出永远限国债，全月净买入债券面值达1000亿元。“买短卖长”操作有助于减缓国债收益率弧线长端单边快速下行趋势，也顺应指点短期利率下行的调控指标，约略更好地阐扬利率等价钱型调控用具作用。
详细我国经济现时稳增长的需要和永久高质地发展的总条款，需要进一步扩大国债刊行限制。宏不雅经济方面，扩大国内需求、改善阛阓预期、退避金融风险、完本钱年经济增长指标等，皆需要财政政策抓续发力，加多国债供给。金融阛阓方面，在“钞票荒”配景下，阛阓关于永远限国债树立需求繁盛，加多国债供给有益于促进债券阛阓供求均衡。此外，国债刊行限制扩大空间豪阔。当今我国中央政府债务总和与国内坐蓐总值的比率不到30%，远低于好意思国、日本等阐扬国度。
扩大国债刊行限制，需要加强政策统筹互助，完善相应的配套设施。一是通过降准、加大公开阛阓净投放力度、饱读吹买卖银行机动颐养准备金等样貌，为国债刊行提供合理流动性。二是应时兑现颐养利率，冉冉加大公开阛阓国债现券买卖力度，理顺政策利率和阛阓利率体系，提高政策传导效果。三是加多利率风险照管用具。进一步稳慎扩大国债期货参与方，应时推放洋债期权居品，促进期现联动、郑重发展。四是久了国债阛阓对外绽开。通过境外信息平台与境内一级阛阓纵贯安排，便利境外投资者参与国债一级阛阓认购。
靠近天下百年未有之大变局，稳步鼓吹中国式当代化和高质地发展，需要宏不雅政策的添砖加瓦。加强统筹互助，增强宏不雅政策取向一致性，有益于兼顾短期厚实、永远增长和结构优化三大指标，为中国经济高质地发展提供强有劲的政策保险。
◇ 本文原载《债券》2024年9月刊
◇ 作家：钟言
◇ 剪辑：陈森 刘颖
Strengthening Planning and Coordination and Enhancing the Consistency of Macro Policy Orientation
Zhong Yan
At the Third Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee， it was pointed out that proper macro-control and effective government governance are the inherent prerequisites for leveraging the advantages of the socialist market economic system． Therefore， it is necessary to optimize the macro-control system， promote the reform in key areas such as finance and taxation， and enhance the consistency of macro-policy orientation．
Since 2024， the fiscal policy has intensified by augmenting the supply of ultra-long-term treasury bonds． From January to August， the issuance of treasury bonds was RMB8.4 trillion， up 33% year-on-year． The issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds was RMB822 billion， a year-on-year increase of 257%， which played an active role in supporting major national initiatives and key areas． At the same time， the use of the central budget and the issuance of local government bonds were accelerated to maintain economic recovery． During this period， the yield of 10-year treasury bonds fell by 39 bps， and the credit spread narrowed to a historical low．
The monetary policy maintains a supportive position and provides financial support for sustained economic recovery． Monetary policy tools and framework mechanisms are changing． In accordance with the Central Financial Work Conference， in August 2024， the People’s Bank of China launched the operation of buying and selling treasury bonds in the open market， buying short-term bonds from primary dealers and selling long-term bonds． The net value of bonds bought in August reached RMB100 billion． This operation could slow down the unilateral downward trend of the treasury yield curve at the long-end， and also facilitate the regulation goal of bringing down short-term interest rates， thus better leveraging the role of interest rates as a price-based regulatory tool．
To support steady economic growth at the current stage and promote high-quality development in the long term， it is necessary to further increase the issuance of treasury bonds． From the perspective of macro-economy， sustained fiscal support from increased supply of treasury bonds is required for expanding the domestic demand， improving market expectations， preventing financial risks and achieving this year’s economic growth target． In terms of the financial market， in the context of an “asset shortage”， the market has a strong demand of long-term treasury bonds and therefore increasing the supply of treasury bonds help lead to a balance between supply and demand in the bond market． Besides， there is ample room for the expansion of treasury bond issuance． At present， the ratio of China’s central government debt to its GDP is less than 30%， far lower than that of developed economies such as the US and Japan．
With the increased issuance of treasury bonds， it is necessary to strengthen policy coordination and improve the corresponding supporting measures． First， it is proposed to provide proper liquidity for the issuance of treasury bonds by lowering the RRR， increasing the net supply in the open market， and encouraging commercial banks to flexibly adjust their reserves． Second， it is suggested to adjust interest rates in a timely and appropriate manner， gradually increase the buying and selling of treasury bonds in the open market， coordinate the policy interest rate and market-based interest rates， and improve the efficiency of policy transmission． The third is to provide more interest rate risk management tools． To this end， it is necessary to include more participants into the treasury bond futures market in a prudent manner， launch treasury bond option products in a proper manner， and promote the sound interaction and development of the futures market and the spot market． The fourth is to deepen the opening-up of the treasury bond market． Enhanced connectivity between overseas information platforms and the domestic primary market could make it more convenient for overseas investors to participate in the primary market of treasury bonds．
In the face of the unprecedented changes in the world in a century， the steady promotion of the Chinese path to modernization and high-quality development requires effective macro policies． Strengthening overall planning and coordination， and enhancing the consistency of macro policy orientation， is conducive to balancing the three major goals of short-term stability， long-term growth， and structural optimization， thus providing strong policy support for the high-quality development of the Chinese economy．
◇ Editors： Chen Sen， Liu Ying
海量资讯、精确解读，尽在新浪财经APP
包袱剪辑：赵念念远 篮球买球下单平台
